Ci-dessous les points-clés et, plus bas, le communiqué de presse suivi de k’étude téléchargeable (PDF 17 pages) :
- We believe the biggest credit impact following a Brexit vote would be a potential lack of foreign and local capital investment in the U.K. due to the ensuing uncertainty over the departure terms.
- Short-term financial risks that would immediately follow a U.K. decision to leave the EU include currency devaluation, a higher cost of debt capital, and reduced access of U.K. companies to international capital markets.
- Long term, our key concern is the possibility of a curtailment in corporate investment. But U.K. corporates and EU-based companies operating in the U.K. would also face risks in adapting to new trade agreements and tariff regimes, navigating changing immigration rules to maintain adequate supply and flexibility in the labor force, and complying with regulatory regime changes--including the environment for mergers and acquisitions.
- Industries that could potentially suffer most from a fall in investment include, in our view, U.K. real estate, U.K. construction, aerospace and defense, the capital goods and auto industries, chemicals, metals and mining, infrastructure, and oil exploration and production companies that target developments in the North Sea.
- Many industries, however, would likely be more insulated from much of the disruption, either due to their lower capital intensity--such as media and business services companies, technology, and forest products and packaging--or to their very local and regulated nature, such as U.K. bus and rail. We believe even affected industries could also have the capacity to adapt, or even benefit, over time.

Brexit Could Paralyze Capital Investment For U.K. And European Corporates, Says Report

A vote by Britain to exit the EU in the forthcoming referendum could paralyze capital investment in U.K. corporates and European companies with U.K. exposure in the ensuing period of uncertainty over the terms of a U.K. departure, says S&P Global Ratings today in a report ("Capital Investment Paralysis Is The Main Brexit Risk For European And U.K. Corporates").

"In our view, the shorter term challenges relate mostly to the dislocation that would be caused by increased financial market volatility, including a potential sharp depreciation in sterling," said S&P Global Ratings analyst Taron Wade. This could result from the lack of any blueprint as to how in practical terms the U.K. could transition smoothly out of the EU and would not be helped by the likely sovereign downgrade that would result from a Brexit.

Over the longer term, we believe the biggest risks for corporates would be the impact of a likely reduction in both domestic and foreign direct investment. This would stem from an extended period, potentially running to many years, during which the terms of exit and replacement trade treaties with the U.K.'s partners are renegotiated.

A lack of investment during this period would likely erode the competitive position of companies in certain industries and negatively affect their revenue and profitability, at least until the shape of the post-EU institutional framework became clear. We see this as a concern, particularly given the low-growth economic environment currently prevalent in parts of Europe.

Companies that could potentially suffer more from such a capital investment paralysis include those in capital-intensive industries and those more reliant on foreign direct investment. These include U.K. real estate, U.K. construction, aerospace and defense, the capital goods and auto industries, chemicals, metals and mining, infrastructure, and U.K. oil exploration and production companies that target development of the North Sea oil fields.

Other longer term risk factors both for U.K. and EU-based companies operating in the U.K. would include the need to adapt to new trade agreements and tariff regimes and navigate changing immigration rules so as to maintain an adequate labor force supply and flexibility. Companies would also face the need to adapt to regulatory regime changes--including the environment for mergers and acquisitions.

Many industries, however, would likely be more insulated from much of the disruption of a Brexit. This could be due to their lower capital intensity, such as media and business services companies, technology, and forest products and packaging. It may also be due to their very local nature, such as U.K. bus and rail.

We believe even industries affected by a Brexit would have the capacity to adapt, or even benefit, over time, the report concludes.

Only a rating committee may determine a rating action and this report does not constitute a rating action.

S&P Global Ratings, a division of S&P Global Inc. (NYSE: SPGI), is the world's leading provider of independent credit risk research and benchmarks. We have more than 1 million credit ratings outstanding on government, corporate, financial sector and structured finance entities and securities. With approximately 1,400 credit analysts in 26 countries, and more than 150 years' experience of assessing credit risk, we offer a unique combination of global coverage and local insight. Our research and opinions about relative credit risk provide market participants with information and independent benchmarks that help to support the growth of transparent, liquid debt markets worldwide.

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